The Reynolds Bickerstaff Podcast
The Reynolds Bickerstaff Podcast
The Future of Real Estate 2022 forecast
In this Sales Meeting Reynolds Bickerstaff shares economic data to support his predictions for the 2022 Housing Market.
One of the ones that does that this meeting is being recorded.<laugh>
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's you're right, Mary, you gotta always look at it and see, um, you know, how do the current conditions affect my decision? What should someone like me do at a market like this? And, um, it's changing a lot. It's gonna change a lot in 2022. This is just a larger picture of the same, uh, short. Okay. I thought this was interesting. Has anyone sold a home to a mul, you know, a two generation family or multiple generation family, you know, parents take care of and elderly adults taking care of an elderly parent kids moving back in multi-generational communities are one of the solutions to affordable housing. Um, what was the name I saw the other day, uh, is, you know, on millennials and said, oh, he actually does have an apartment. He has a whole basement at his parents' house. I can't wait to go out with him. You know, making fun of people, living in basement with their parents. Um, people can't find place to still live the apartments. They're too expensive. So multi-generational communities, we've talked about this for a long time, but until this pandemic occurred, it hasn't been really that popular because guess what? It's hard to take care of people when they're far away, mom and dad are over there. I can't care for them. Um, kids are moving back. This is a graph that shows the new homes built per thousand Americans. It goes back to 19. Let's just say 60, 19 59. So new homes, 2006, obviously we had major recession. And what, what do you pick up from the housing recession the early two thousands to today? What has not occurred
Speaker 3:Back to where we,
Speaker 2:Yeah, we haven't even made back to like normal. So many, many builders went out of business. They never got back in. They just quit. We have to where it's a shortage of skilled labor. Um, even the big, the big home builders, toll brothers, um, Pty, they can't account for the entire new home market. You know, y'all probably knew lots of people that maybe built 5, 10, 15 homes a year. People are gone. You're either a big box builder and mass scale, or you're just doing custom jobs. So we aren't even coming close to producing the amount of new homes annually that our population demands, which is why there is so much pressure on the Reese sale market. Right? Y'all look at some of these homes and like, oh my gosh, that home is$180 of square foot. No, three years ago they were getting 125 in that neighborhood bar. Look, y'all the house across the street from me. I was shocked what it just sold for it's half brick, half vinyl siding. It sold for$280,000. Doesn't even have a garage. Now I know I've brought up the value of the neighborhood. I understand my Christmas lights and seasonal decorations. But when you look at north Columbus where you gonna find a decent yard, it been renovated, but there's just not any choices, which is why in 2022, we're still gonna be seeing multiple offers on homes. There's not enough new construction available. And the resale market is still going to receive a lot of pressure. And, um, we think there's gonna be not. When we say last week, there's about 14% appreciation and home values in Muskogee county. They'll probably be, you know, between 10 and 14, not as much in 2021, but we still think that we're gonna see double digits appreciation and home value on the resale. So if that occurs, if I bought a house in the last 12 months, is it possible I could sell it for a profit in 20, 22 very much. So here's one thing you have to think about though, need versus want. Rates are going home values are gonna be appreciating. Do I want to buy a home or do I need to buy a home? Cause if you need to buy a home and these things are gonna be happening are happening in 2022, how much negotiating power do you really have? Not much. Right. So how do you compete in this market? Now you compete by helping your clients understand what the odds are that they're going to be able to, to own a home in 2022, help,'em get'em in touch with a good lender, help'em understand their finances. You know, they may need to stay in this house for 10 years, right? We could still have more appreciation in the next couple years. Maybe it slows down some, I don't think we'll see double digit appreciation in 2023, but it's still gonna be healthy because this is gonna take a long time to recover from, um, it's years before we start 3d printing homes and build'em on factories and assembling'em on site, you know, like Christmas presents. I mean, eventually modular construction will be very, very attractive. The mobile homes they built now are nothing like the ones I was at in college. And the one I lived in college, who I had skylights and a garden, tub and mirrors in my bathroom. I saw it. I was, I thought I was living strong carpet in the bathrooms. Now the sheet rock was a was, was like painted on. I think the sheet rock was painted on it wasn't even a paneled sheet rock. So a point is new construction prices are still gonna increase. We we're not even gonna get into cost of materials. Um, but you can just see this one graph that we're way behind on new home inventory. Now this doesn't get a whole lot of attention. Like it used to, this is still the standard, the case sugar index. Does anybody know if this index is It's it's value? You know, it's market value so national and they do composites. We're looking at this yellow line and it goes year over year. So January to January, this is the appreciation and home values. Okay. So, so This line, January 21, 10% Through what it went up, another 5% through the middle of the year, you know, and we talked about 14% last week. So the national average talked out of 20% rolling into 2022. A major event would have to happen To, you know, just to get back down to 10% appreciation in 2022. Does everybody understand that we're on a national level, you're going to see double digit appreciation, at least in home values in the Columbus market and the east Alabama market Did Phoenix city outpace Columbus last year. Something to think about y'all you're not licensed in Alabama. Maybe you should be. There's a lot of opportunity over there and they're building new homes. Okay. So how has the pandemic changed real estate? We talked about this last year. People are still, you know, moving to some of the suburbs that they can find space working from home with somebody that's just gonna be permanent. Now, some people are never gonna go back to the corporate headquarters and they're thrilled about that. This started happening a little bit last year. It's really ramping up in Metro areas. Now, I, I know a developer in Atlanta who is converting an office building in Midtown, Atlanta into apartments, not condos into apartments. So, um, I don't think you'll see, you know, big. We don't have a lot of big office buildings here. Um, low interest rates are gonna drop are going to, uh, supposed to, I didn't change that increasing interest, rising interest rates, I think will drive down high end home sales. How many people in 2021 bought their dream home now? Oh my gosh, it's two and a half percent, 3%. I was at a 500,000 level. I can now afford 7, 7 50 rates go up Values, go up. That 600,000 house is now, you know, close to That's going. I'm gonna pull back. Maybe I'm not gonna buy this big home anymore. I'm not cutting my own grass in a 700,000 house, but I may have to, if I can't afford to pay someone to do it, um, You know what I forget to take out this sled. That's a totally wrong sled. I apologize. This is what I want to get to Criteria for home buyers. What are they looking for in 2022? This was number one last year. Did y'all hear a lot of people say they wanted large outdoor space. Okay. They wanted a dedicated home office classroom. My kids are, I don't even know if they're zooming, but they're at home. This is a new one. Mental health wellness space. Okay. I'm at home. Gyms are closing down. The yoga studio is at, is at a reduced capacity. Um, I don't have this space, so where can I go in my home? And where can I relax? Where can I shut the door? And mom or dad needs five minutes an hour myself. Um, I think you're gonna see this come up, whereas maybe not so much as a play, but more of a workout room, adult room, mental health space. Um,
Speaker 3:All we don't have garages are off of lots. Yeah. And there's not enough garages in this town. I don't understand there no garages.
Speaker 2:Yep. You use their garage to park cars and they store stuff. So you see all these storage facilities opening up and they're maximum. It's crazy. Well, why do we have all this stuff? I don't know. That's another, that's another debate class beat internet. Remember last year we talked about the difference between, can anybody tell me the difference between bandwidth and broadband? Roy? You're a tech expert now. So put you on the spot.
Speaker 4:It's just, um, a wider spectrum for more people to have access to.
Speaker 2:So has anybody a, did any buyers ask y'all about how, how good is the internet here? How do you answer that?
Speaker 3:I'm the provider.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Perfect. Yeah. Put it on them. Okay. But the internet speed. It's a measure of how fast information is transferred, right? That's your, that's what, that's your broadband. It's how fast things are moving. So broadband refers to the range of frequencies are banned. You have, what do you see? Those science who Hughes net, which is satellite. Elon Musk company is a space link. Uh, he has satellite internet. Um, so satellite DSL cable, fiber Hovan is the frequency or the speed. Cause I can have, I can have super fast internet, but not a lot of bandwidth, which is the amount of data to be really careful. You're right. Mary don't get into those discussions have been called the providers. They can give the address, but you need to know if someone's trying to tell you, oh yeah, we've got, oh, you've got great internet. We out broadband. Well, that's like saying, um, what kind of, uh, Kleenex do you have here? Oh yeah. We've got tissue paper. It we've got tissue paper from Sam's that fill that cardboard. It's not Kleenex with the Allo that also MOS and salt, whatever people don't know what broadband means. You need to know the difference. Broadband is the speed. Bandwidth is the amount, how much internet do I want? Everybody's got broadband. You got internet, you have a broadband. It's just, how fast is it? Um, so do you wanna identify out who the providers are in MLS listing? Maybe you should be careful though. You need to have information to confirm that they are available.
Speaker 5:How, how about if those who are as a part of the seller disclosure,
Speaker 2:You could certainly disclose the seller, what they have. Absolutely. That that would be a safe bet. You conclude a copy of the bill and it'll say, you know, at and T Mediacom this, I mean that would, that would be a safe play for sure. I would not give them a whole list, but I certainly state current, the seller currently has cable DSL, 250 mega month, whatever the amount is, the, the bandwidth. Um, let, let someone else misinterpret that cause people have different opinions of it, but it's important. So the theme we're caring for this year is efficient. And According to Webster dictionary efficient means achieving maximum productivity with minimum wasted effort or expense, Working in a well organized and competent way. So I'd like for y'all to take out, this will take just two minutes, take out a piece of paper and, and write this down. Would you like to generate The same revenue, new or gross commission at 2022 With less effort? Most of you're gonna probably put a yes. Same or more. Okay. So if you want, if you want to be more efficient and generate the same income with less effort than you had to expend in 2021, what's one thing you could work on next week that would increase your efficiency. What's one thing, maybe it's waking up 30 minutes earlier Going to bed 30 minutes earlier, Not checking social media before or nine. There could be a lot of things. Just pick one thing, something really, really simple. And then I want you to write down what's one thing you could work on this quarter That would increase your efficiency.
Speaker 6:Do,
Speaker 2:Could it help you if you automated some of your communication with your clients, by learning how to use your contact management system Or Take a step back, maybe you just wanna write out each month, how you want to communicate with people and put it on your calendar. February is a call. March is April is a note. Maybe you just wanna have a hard copy, but what could you work on this quarter that would increase your efficiency in 2022 and then think about, are there any obstacles that would prevent you from being able to do this and by obstacles? I mean, is it, do you lack the skill to know how to use your contact management system? Is there an area where you need help and learning how to time block? If there's, if it's a skill, Where could you find information come to a class, talk to Alan, Steve or myself, or is it a, is it a lack of desire? I don't wanna do any of this. I'm tired. I don't wanna sit down and try to figure this out. So if you, if you wanna generate the same, earn more income with less effort, be thinking about the rest of this week. What's something I could work on next week. What's something I could work on this quarter. And what do I need to do to make that happen? Do I need to focus on maybe a skill or do I need to get in the right mind to make that happen? You've got plenty of time to do this. Y'all do you think agents at other companies are gonna be just trying to repeat what they did in 2022? Do you think they're gonna be trying to do things differently? Most of'em are, most of'em are just gonna continue to react to the market. If every thing that we just covered, if most of it comes true, the market is gonna behave very similar to 2021. Can you, can we control any of that? If I go back and show, can I con I don't work for the fed that you're aware of? I don't control interest rates. Uh, I'm not a builder. I don't build homes. This is the only thing y'all can control is how you react to, what's gonna go on in 2022. It's gonna be a lot like 20, 21, except you've already been through 2021. So you know what this market's gonna be like, and you did it, you're here. And some of at your best year ever, which is awesome. Now I realize maybe some of us wanted to crawl into the wellness space at our home a lot. Um, and just take a break or what you gotta do things to recharge, right? So, and 2021 was a year of reaction. We were doing as much business as we could. We take it while we can get it, and we're gonna deal with the fallout. Later, 2022 is about being proactive. That I can't talk in the same, being proactive and adjusting business plan on how you can manage the business that you have now in the business you're gonna do in 2022. It doesn't require much change at all. Just some little things y'all. So think about those little things. What's one thing I could do next week. One thing I could focus on this quarter that would help me be a little more efficient, could be cutting out. Some things could be adding something, but think about what you want to do and figure out, well, how, how am I gonna do that? You'll immediately start feeling better about 20, 22 and all the business that's available to you. We're here to help you with that. As you go through this list, if there's something, um, you need help with or want talk about, come see the three of us, some of the things we're doing will, will already help with this. Some of the changes we're making here on the back end, that we'll talk about later with our accounting and with DocuSign, we gotta keep working on being more efficient, quickly, moving through things, achieving the maximum productivity of minimum wasted effort, expense. You'll all have high standards, which you operate your business. But if you can save a little bit of time or spend less time doing the same things you did, you'll get a greater return on the time you invested. And you'll have more time to do those as things that renew you and your business and give you the repre you sometimes need from everything else going on 2022 is, is going to be emotionally stressful. And I think, and I'm, I'm a perfect example today. COVID is gonna call more social harm probably than physical harm to people, right? Um, am I a fool for going out this evening wearing a mask? I don't think so, but I'm sure some people are gonna wonder why at the Auburn basketball stadium, I'm wearing a mask and I'm thinking, what are these 15,000 people not wearing masks? We're yelling at Auburn, you know, we're close. That's how stuff spreads. So maybe it's be efficient with my thoughts about what I can really do about any of this, right? And focus on the things that you can do appreciate y'all being here this morning. And, um, we're here to help you to go through your list. If there's something you wanna work on, we'll be happy to help you out with that next week. We're gonna move into kind of some regular sales meeting topics. And, uh, we're talking about, um, and the actions to achieve your goals in 20 in 22. So this is kind of a segue to that to be thinking over the next week about efficiency. How can I be a little more efficient? Doesn't have to be a whole lot. Y'all just a little bit, I promise you agents and other companies are not thinking that way. They're just thinking about how can I get a break while y'all leaning in thinking about how can I get better at doing this? That's where the real value is. People still need your help. They do. So if you're gonna help them, you've gotta figure out a way to be just a little more efficient at doing that. And I know you can do that and we're gonna be bringing you some ideas on how to do that. I appreciate y'all being here this morning. You have an extra yourself to Roy. Please do so. And if you haven't met Jordan, please introduce yourself to her as well and appreciate y'all being here this morning. Thank you.